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deficit that i was talking about. it also adds $3.5 trillion to the deficit. finally, the recovery act accounts for less than 10% of that total. so basically, the $9 trillion projected deficit can be entirely accounted for by the failure to pay for policies in the past, the economic downturn, and the steps we've had to take to combat that downturn. which is not to say action isn't necessary, it absolutely is. but it's important to realize we didn't get here by accident. >> rose: is this administration in favor of extending unemployment benefits? >> there are a whole series of questions that we are facing as we come to the end of the year, including unemployment benefits. i expect there will be some extension of unemployment benefits. >> rose: because people like arianna huffington are going around saying to me and others that the problem is with the administration is larry summers is against extending unemployment benefits. >> i don't want to speak about e views of individual members of the economic or other parts of the administration, but i don't think that'
deficit that i was talking about. it also adds $3.5 trillion to the deficit. finally, the recovery act accounts for less than 10% of that total. so basically, the $9 trillion projected deficit can be entirely accounted for by the failure to pay for policies in the past, the economic downturn, and the steps we've had to take to combat that downturn. which is not to say action isn't necessary, it absolutely is. but it's important to realize we didn't get here by accident. >> rose: is this...
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not a hysterical deficit hawk but a deficit hawk. >> rose: you will become a deficit hawk when we have a strong economy. define for you a strong economy. is that g.d.p. growth of 4%? >> it's not growth. unemployment rate low enough that the fed is interesting rates to head off inflation. as soon as we're out of the liquidity trap where the fed has got its pedal to the metal. >> rose: so when the fed raises the interest rates to avoid inflation that's when the economy is good shape? >> no, that's when you can make a deal. the fed will hold off on the interest rate hikes. that way it doesn't depress the economy. >> you would start dealing with the debt immediately. you would go in and fix entitlement reform. yes? what would you do immediately to the debt? >> you want to get the parties talking. you want to get the white house, you want to get congress talking and talk about what's going to have to be done to address medicare, to address medicaid, to address social security which is less of a problem. and my belief is -- my concern about the crisis-- like bob rubin said, you never know wh
not a hysterical deficit hawk but a deficit hawk. >> rose: you will become a deficit hawk when we have a strong economy. define for you a strong economy. is that g.d.p. growth of 4%? >> it's not growth. unemployment rate low enough that the fed is interesting rates to head off inflation. as soon as we're out of the liquidity trap where the fed has got its pedal to the metal. >> rose: so when the fed raises the interest rates to avoid inflation that's when the economy is good...
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these deficits. never seen these before in your lifetime or my lifetime. so for example the deficit for the year we're now in is going to be about a trillion nine. a trillion nine. >> rose: over 2009 the deficit will be $1.9 trillion? >> that's right. and keep in mind, only a few years ago, four or five years ago, the entire budget wasn't $1.9 trillion. it would have been, say, five years ago or six years ago. the deficit in relation to the size of our economy is going to be 13% this year. it's not going to... it's going to average approximately 5% for the next ten years. and, by the way, we've only had deficitss of that magnitude, the 5%, twice since 1946. now, the debt, according, for example, to goldman sachs, is going to reach at the end of this ten-year period about 85% of the size of our economy. now, the last time that happened was at the onset of world war ii 1942, 1943. we haven't had anything remotely like that, since. the united kingdom, the u.k., is also facing an outlook like that and ha
these deficits. never seen these before in your lifetime or my lifetime. so for example the deficit for the year we're now in is going to be about a trillion nine. a trillion nine. >> rose: over 2009 the deficit will be $1.9 trillion? >> that's right. and keep in mind, only a few years ago, four or five years ago, the entire budget wasn't $1.9 trillion. it would have been, say, five years ago or six years ago. the deficit in relation to the size of our economy is going to be 13%...
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not have deficit beyond 10 years. third, result in a significant reduction in the tens of trillions of unfunded promises that we already have. and fourthly, result in lower health care costs as a percentage of the economy than we would have had we not do the reform. the bills don't pass that. >> i want in here. let me say, i actually think the cbo was underwaiting the amount of the savings of the bills. these bills basically try all of the things, and we don't know which those are going to work and how well. so the cbo scores those things as zero because it says it doesn't know. bust the odds are some of those things would work. i think there was a -- both the senate and house bill are the most serious cost control efforts we have ever made. if we can get something like those through at the end. it will make a big difference. >> if we don't.god help us. we will have failed because largely of a square campaign about medicare and death panels which will make any future reform -- >> some that he came to office and that s
not have deficit beyond 10 years. third, result in a significant reduction in the tens of trillions of unfunded promises that we already have. and fourthly, result in lower health care costs as a percentage of the economy than we would have had we not do the reform. the bills don't pass that. >> i want in here. let me say, i actually think the cbo was underwaiting the amount of the savings of the bills. these bills basically try all of the things, and we don't know which those are going...
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is main street going to rct to a deficit? is thawhat has happened or will the marke react and main street will fghtened by the reacti of the market? is that theay it willappen? >> i was particularly fascinated by the last two really major polls. the cbs/"neyork times" poll and the "ll street journal"/nbc poll. each released o weeks ago and they both asked about the deficit. i thought itas quite surprising that the public registered alrea-- fore having seen the outlines of these mu worse defits-- twe as much concern abo the deficias, for example, health care and for e last threeor four years, health care on the domestic ledger has been number one. so already the public is saying by a two to one margin "we're more worried about the deficit than ware about health care." now, ask yourself a year fro w when the deficit outlook that we'reiscussing here becos the universal view what thpublic reactn will be. i suspect it wilbe considerably me adverse than we saw in lt month's poll and there will ba lot of pressure on the congress, fo
is main street going to rct to a deficit? is thawhat has happened or will the marke react and main street will fghtened by the reacti of the market? is that theay it willappen? >> i was particularly fascinated by the last two really major polls. the cbs/"neyork times" poll and the "ll street journal"/nbc poll. each released o weeks ago and they both asked about the deficit. i thought itas quite surprising that the public registered alrea-- fore having seen the outlines...
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and can talk more about... >> rose: a deficit commission, essentially. >> a deficit commission. senator conrad, for emple, has been a leade in putting that idea forrd. others are cong forward with specific ideas about h to save money. ll give you a simple example. we wenout andsked federal emplees "what would you do to make you ancies work more efficienly." throh the what we call the save award. we got tens of thousands o responses and we're reading those. members of congres are also writing letters and feedininto thisrocess. there's lots of ideas floating around. so in february we'llcome foard with our judgmenabout the best way forward. >> rose: tell me how you fee aboua value-added tax as an additional soue of revenue. >> that is an idea that hasbeen talked about in academic circles. i haven' heard any direct policy discuion of thatind of proposal. >> ros does it have merit? >>here are academic arguments in favor of it; there are argumentagainst it. >> rose: well peoplelike roger altman come tohis program, former depysecretary of the treasu... >> ...and talk about it. agn, loo
and can talk more about... >> rose: a deficit commission, essentially. >> a deficit commission. senator conrad, for emple, has been a leade in putting that idea forrd. others are cong forward with specific ideas about h to save money. ll give you a simple example. we wenout andsked federal emplees "what would you do to make you ancies work more efficienly." throh the what we call the save award. we got tens of thousands o responses and we're reading those. members of...
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as chancellor he has launched an ambitious program to reduce britain's soaring deficit. we have looked at that this week in our conversation and here are some of the people's reaction to what this government is trying to do to reduce the deficit. >> if you want to look at radical ideas about what to do about the state, or radical ideas in terms of deficit cutting, you are suddenly looking at britain. i think britain is interesting in that way. >> rose: what are the radical ideas. >> there are two, partly one is just the savagery what they are doing. they are cutting on a scale unlike any other, you know, cutting 20% out of most departments. that is a lot to take out. they've exempted health and that's going to be enormously difficult. >> rose: in u.s. they are not just cutting fat they are cutting to the muscle. >> they are cutting it back in a big way. >> they have to do two things, make the case for paring back and cutting back in public spending without cuting the roots of future economic growth in this country. therefore, focus on your priorities. don't just take out
as chancellor he has launched an ambitious program to reduce britain's soaring deficit. we have looked at that this week in our conversation and here are some of the people's reaction to what this government is trying to do to reduce the deficit. >> if you want to look at radical ideas about what to do about the state, or radical ideas in terms of deficit cutting, you are suddenly looking at britain. i think britain is interesting in that way. >> rose: what are the radical ideas....
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for cutting the deficit cannot be faulted. though fortune may favor the brave, it can trip up the headstrong. debate rages not only britain over whether it makes economic sense to fight, to tighten fiscal policy so much so fast, and austerity plans may not be achievable without ripping vital public services to shreds. how do you define where that point is. >> nass's what we've got to avoid. and i think it perfectly possible in a countries that's frankly been overspending over the last decade to find savings. to undertake reforms. to actually improve the quality of the services that people receive. and i refuse to accept that you can't make those savings at the first thing that suffers is the service that people provide. >> rose: can you assure the citizens of britain that those vital services they need will not be -- >> i can absolutely-- . >> rose: i can absolutely assure the people of britain that they will get the health care, the education, the policing services that we need in the 21st century and that i believe the servi
for cutting the deficit cannot be faulted. though fortune may favor the brave, it can trip up the headstrong. debate rages not only britain over whether it makes economic sense to fight, to tighten fiscal policy so much so fast, and austerity plans may not be achievable without ripping vital public services to shreds. how do you define where that point is. >> nass's what we've got to avoid. and i think it perfectly possible in a countries that's frankly been overspending over the last...
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Nov 20, 2010
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had nothing to do with creating the deficit. and therefore that the solutions that cut further into the middle class which has seen no increase in their wealth over the last practically two decades, that we ought to get the money and reduce the deficit from things like raising revenue, mainly on wealthier, the wealthier americans. we can make serious cuts in the defense budget. mine are only about 10% greater than the bowles hfer simpson plan, and that we can look at some of these tax expenditures. those are things like deductions in tax credits, again mostly skewed toward wealthy americans. and make some serious cuts there. by doing that, i am able to achieve primary budget balance. that means we can have a balanced budget by 2015, primary means we don't count the interest on the debt. and we can do it in a progressive way if it doesn't hurt middle income people. >> rose: how would you characterize the work of the commission per se as a member? >> well, first of all, let me just also point out that the bowles hferp simpson prop
had nothing to do with creating the deficit. and therefore that the solutions that cut further into the middle class which has seen no increase in their wealth over the last practically two decades, that we ought to get the money and reduce the deficit from things like raising revenue, mainly on wealthier, the wealthier americans. we can make serious cuts in the defense budget. mine are only about 10% greater than the bowles hfer simpson plan, and that we can look at some of these tax...
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Apr 14, 2011
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we want to get the deficits down, get the deficits paid off. under our bill not only do we end up balancing the budget, we pay off the debtitse. it takes time, but we do that under the c.b.o.oas analysis of the president's budget, he doubles our publicly held debt by the end of his first term, his term, and then he triples it by the end of his budget wind pt the president doesn't come anywhere close going to the deficits down to what they rate as a sustainable level let alone get the deficit under control, the debt under control. you've got to remember, charlie, today's high deficits and debt mean to entrepreneurs and businesses and job creators more tax increases and higher interest rates tomorrow. so showing that we're not getting this under control shows the economy that it's going to be an ugly road, don't invest in the future, don't win the future. we've got to show that we're getting these deficits and debt under control, which are difit driven high by spend sewing we can get job creation today. spending cuts and deficit reduction is good
we want to get the deficits down, get the deficits paid off. under our bill not only do we end up balancing the budget, we pay off the debtitse. it takes time, but we do that under the c.b.o.oas analysis of the president's budget, he doubles our publicly held debt by the end of his first term, his term, and then he triples it by the end of his budget wind pt the president doesn't come anywhere close going to the deficits down to what they rate as a sustainable level let alone get the deficit...
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more so than the deficit. that's what i want to do between now and the next election. >> you increase wages and salaries by 1% and you have $15 billion more in the federal treasury. so if more people are working, more people are paying taxes. the most important thing is to get more people working in america today. there are 25 million americans who are looking or don't have a full time job. >> charlie: how would you nd jobs for them. >> i would the following, charlie. i would say to every company in america, if you hire additional workers and don't lay any off, that the federal government will pay 20% of the salary wage compensation of ose workers. and will be done on a first come first serve basis. and so that means if you're a company, you will hire another worker only if you think it can add productivity because you're going to pay 80%. do you know what, if nobody shows up, we're not worse off than we are now and we won't spend any taxpayer money doing it. i think this is the most targeted approach to get m
more so than the deficit. that's what i want to do between now and the next election. >> you increase wages and salaries by 1% and you have $15 billion more in the federal treasury. so if more people are working, more people are paying taxes. the most important thing is to get more people working in america today. there are 25 million americans who are looking or don't have a full time job. >> charlie: how would you nd jobs for them. >> i would the following, charlie. i would...
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. >> rose: give me a short primer on deficits. >> well, firstf all, we've never seen deficits of this magnitude either in absote terms-- just the dollaramount ofhe dicit-- or in relative term the size of the deficit to our econy and the growing relationsh of the deb as it grows virtue of thes deficits. never seen theseefore in your lifetime omy lifetime. so for example the deficit for e year we're now in is going to be about a trillion nine. a trillion nine. >> rose:over 2009 the deficit will be $1.9 illion? >> that'right. and keep in mind, only a few years o, four orive years ago, the ente budget wasn't $1.9 tllion. it would he been,ay, five yearago or six years ago. the deficit in relati to the size of our economy is going to 13% this year. it not goingto... it's going toveragepproximately 5% for the next ten years. and, b the way,e've only h deficitss of that magnitude, the 5%, twi since 1946. now, the debt, accordg, for example, to goldman sachs, is going to rch at the endf this ten-year period about 85% of the size of our economy. now, the last time that happened was at the set o
. >> rose: give me a short primer on deficits. >> well, firstf all, we've never seen deficits of this magnitude either in absote terms-- just the dollaramount ofhe dicit-- or in relative term the size of the deficit to our econy and the growing relationsh of the deb as it grows virtue of thes deficits. never seen theseefore in your lifetime omy lifetime. so for example the deficit for e year we're now in is going to be about a trillion nine. a trillion nine. >> rose:over 2009...
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they basically don't solve the deficit. you did that once. an excellent idea. give people a spreadsheet. >> thank you, yes. >> pull these and see. >> if you tell them and give them restrictions you say well you can't just leave taxes where they are and you can't cut taxes you have to do a mix then people do -- i agree there's a huge role for education and information in all of this. >> rose: the e book as i said by david is called washington can solve the deficit and spur growth. dean of the columbia business school chair of economic advisors. captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org
they basically don't solve the deficit. you did that once. an excellent idea. give people a spreadsheet. >> thank you, yes. >> pull these and see. >> if you tell them and give them restrictions you say well you can't just leave taxes where they are and you can't cut taxes you have to do a mix then people do -- i agree there's a huge role for education and information in all of this. >> rose: the e book as i said by david is called washington can solve the deficit and...
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we have record peace-time deficits. our debt level is already at a level which is dangerous in peacetime. it doesn't mean we just go for austerity, we just pull the plug on everything, but i do think we have to gradually take it down and rely on the economy healing in a natural way, with easy monetary policy. i'm very in favor of very low interest rates for a long, long time. pabe even some inflation would be a good thing here. >> charlie: what other tools does bernanke have, david, in terms of monetary policy? >> he's already brought interest rates to zero and the more he talks about keeping them there for a long time the more people will be inclined to believe him and the bond market will act accordingly. really, the only big thing he could do now is to resume buying purchases of long-term bonds and mortgage-backed securities to both keep long-term interest rates low and to continue to pump credit into an economy. this is a situation where most economists thought we would never find ourselves -- a period of zero inter
we have record peace-time deficits. our debt level is already at a level which is dangerous in peacetime. it doesn't mean we just go for austerity, we just pull the plug on everything, but i do think we have to gradually take it down and rely on the economy healing in a natural way, with easy monetary policy. i'm very in favor of very low interest rates for a long, long time. pabe even some inflation would be a good thing here. >> charlie: what other tools does bernanke have, david, in...
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in terms of the size of the deficit. now what the president is willing to do is willing to have a bipartisan discussion around social security. but it won't be privatizing security in the way that romney and ryan have proposed in the past it will be a bipartisan effort that is balanced, that protects seniors in a way that kports with our values and who we are. >> rose: most people believe this election is very close and will remain so until you get to 9 debates and forward to see if someone breaks out is that your analysis. >> absolutely. i have been saying this for a year. the country is evenly divided. it's going to be a very close election. you see we're leading in 12 of 13, maybe all 13 or certainly within the margin of error in all 13 states. the democrats are leading. but it's-- very, very close. they have super pacs that are anonymous. but we're talking 1.3 billion dollars that they're expected to raise. and as you saw, as we've seen in their commercials, the welfare commercials an example, they don't let the troo
in terms of the size of the deficit. now what the president is willing to do is willing to have a bipartisan discussion around social security. but it won't be privatizing security in the way that romney and ryan have proposed in the past it will be a bipartisan effort that is balanced, that protects seniors in a way that kports with our values and who we are. >> rose: most people believe this election is very close and will remain so until you get to 9 debates and forward to see if...
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or deficit? did this group or did the domenici group, the rivlin group did pete peterson's group, you get into... it's my experience to get into percentage and so on. we're just telling them, look, it's unsustainable, you better get in and get wet all over. we have to touch every single segment of american ciety and so far the public is hearing it but when you have 12 of those 18 of us who are members of congress, it is to s.u.v. for them. >> rose: so tell me how you two made your decisions about tax cuts versus spending cuts? >> we listened. we think we have the problems bigger on the spending side than it is on the revenue side. we then tried to look not at just hard numbers but tried to figure out what we could really cut. as an example, as al was mentioning earlier, we've made $163 billion of cuts in discretionary budget in the year 2015. the president gave us a goal to get to 3% of g.d.p., we actually got to 2.2% of g.d.p. but in that $163 billion of the cuts we've recommended, we have $200
or deficit? did this group or did the domenici group, the rivlin group did pete peterson's group, you get into... it's my experience to get into percentage and so on. we're just telling them, look, it's unsustainable, you better get in and get wet all over. we have to touch every single segment of american ciety and so far the public is hearing it but when you have 12 of those 18 of us who are members of congress, it is to s.u.v. for them. >> rose: so tell me how you two made your...
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is no conflict between the deficit and job creation. they go together. because if you don't get your unemployment rate down there's no way you get your deficit down, right. people aren't paying taxes. >> exactly. >> and so a very sinceable strategy. >> on the other hand if you have a huge deficit you are paying alot more to interest rates too. >> again one of the things we talk about is you know, the kind of one-time spenng that we are doing with the recovery act, with even the targeted measures we're talking about, that adds just a trivial amount to the long run deficit where. is that long run deficit comefrom t is from those big tax cuts in the previous administration that weren't paid for. it's coming from health care spending and a social security spending as you go out 20, 30 years. and so making progress on those, i think, is going to be crucial. >> but is there a new normal as they say to use that little cute phrase? >> it's a good question. i think you know, the world's going to -- >> i think in terms of growth, in terms of unem
is no conflict between the deficit and job creation. they go together. because if you don't get your unemployment rate down there's no way you get your deficit down, right. people aren't paying taxes. >> exactly. >> and so a very sinceable strategy. >> on the other hand if you have a huge deficit you are paying alot more to interest rates too. >> again one of the things we talk about is you know, the kind of one-time spenng that we are doing with the recovery act, with...
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it's huge. 13 billion deficit and the freeze is a gesture. an important gesture but still a small gesture. >> but he went further than that. >> okay even so. and then secondly on the jobs, as john said, it's a bad decade, stagnation, 10% unemployment. i still didn't see anything in there that fundamentally addresses those issues. and i think to the core issue that he did address without a solution but he was right to address it which is institutionally the government is weak in addresngts fundamental problems and it has been preceding this administration. last few years we tried social security reform, immigration reform, healthcare, cap and trade, cap and finance. it's been failure after failure after failure. i had a very moving e-mail after the senate staff or a democrat, a woman who said i've been working a year on healthcare. it's probably going to come to nothing why am i here for. a t of people up here feel that way and that goes to the institutional weakness of our government this time. i think he understands the problem but how you g
it's huge. 13 billion deficit and the freeze is a gesture. an important gesture but still a small gesture. >> but he went further than that. >> okay even so. and then secondly on the jobs, as john said, it's a bad decade, stagnation, 10% unemployment. i still didn't see anything in there that fundamentally addresses those issues. and i think to the core issue that he did address without a solution but he was right to address it which is institutionally the government is weak in...
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they basically don't solve the deficit. you did that once. an excellent idea. give people a spreadsheet. >> thank you, yes. >> pull these and see. >> if you tell them and give them restrictions you say well you can't just leave taxes where they are and you can't cut taxes you have to do a mix then people do -- i agree there's a huge role for education and information in all of this. >> rose: the e book as i said by david is called washington can solve the deficit and spur growth. dean of the columbia business school chair of economic advisors. captioning sponsored by rose communications captioned by media access group at wgbh access.wgbh.org >>> the following kqed production was produced in high definition. ♪ >>> calories, calories, calories! >> wow, it rocked my world! >> it just kind of reminded me of boot camp. >> i don't know what you had, but this is great! >> it almost f >> hi! i'm leslie sbrocco, welcome to "check, please! bay area," the show where regular bay area
they basically don't solve the deficit. you did that once. an excellent idea. give people a spreadsheet. >> thank you, yes. >> pull these and see. >> if you tell them and give them restrictions you say well you can't just leave taxes where they are and you can't cut taxes you have to do a mix then people do -- i agree there's a huge role for education and information in all of this. >> rose: the e book as i said by david is called washington can solve the deficit and...
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one of the important deficits we have in this country is the infrastructure deficit. where kids are going to class rooms where paints are chipping off t walls. that's an infrastructure deficit. we can put people to work. >> charlie: why didn't we do that in the original -- >> we did. we should have -- wedid. we did as much as we could pass politicay, and we did abo as much as the system could move the money quickly. what we needed to have done was to have maintained the momentum of that more fully. the president proposed that in the fall of 2009 actlly, and the house of representatives passed it. unfortunately the senate didn' pass those measures and so we didn't get the kind of sustained impulse throug2011, that would have been, that would have been ideal. >> charlie: is there anything else in terms that you would do to accelerate growth and reduce unemployment. >> the key, the key to increasing growth and reducing unemployment is increasing demand. >> charlie: right. >> one crucial source of demand is the variety of things the government can do tha i described. anot
one of the important deficits we have in this country is the infrastructure deficit. where kids are going to class rooms where paints are chipping off t walls. that's an infrastructure deficit. we can put people to work. >> charlie: why didn't we do that in the original -- >> we did. we should have -- wedid. we did as much as we could pass politicay, and we did abo as much as the system could move the money quickly. what we needed to have done was to have maintained the momentum of...
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deficit doesn't decrease. other countries is taking the service for themselves and it's a two-fold problem. you have to solve the surface problem in china but solve the deficit problem in the u.s. and the deficit problem in the u.s. i weent say is not linked to the currency and the fact that the chinese currency is undervalued in our view, substantially undervalued but that's not the whole story. >> charlie: why is everybody you been successful in getting the chinese to appreciate that or do they appreciate it and say we have other things we have to do and other priorities having to do with employment. >> it's a country that's serving 100 million people. they are trying to get them out of poverty, developing jobs and creating consumption and they choose the one policy which is to shiftrom totally export model to a more domestic model. that's fine, as a result of this will be the increasing the value of the country. when we talk with the chinese they tell us we understand but we're in charge how far our own peo
deficit doesn't decrease. other countries is taking the service for themselves and it's a two-fold problem. you have to solve the surface problem in china but solve the deficit problem in the u.s. and the deficit problem in the u.s. i weent say is not linked to the currency and the fact that the chinese currency is undervalued in our view, substantially undervalued but that's not the whole story. >> charlie: why is everybody you been successful in getting the chinese to appreciate that or...